Sociologists and political analysts expect a clear victory of PDSR (Party of Social Democracy) during local elections to be held on Sunday, amid low participation in voting, also generated by the recent FNI scandal.
The main opposition party will control county and local councils in most cities, sociologist Sebastian Lazaroiu thinks. He states that participation in the polls will be higher in Bucharest, due to some “strong candidates” running in the race, but it could be below 50 percent in many localities. Lazaroiu says that the collapse of FNI affected about 1,000,000 people, and many of them are to protest by not expressing their votes. Results of the two parliamentary parties, ApR (Alliance for Romania) and PNL (Liberal Party), whose participation is a novelty against local elections of 1996, will be, according to Lazaroiu, below expectations of their leaders who announced that they planned to get at least 15 percent of votes. Lazaroiu says that ApR is “weakly organised” within the territory, while the Liberals have not managed to obtain any significant percentage in polls at a national level, “despite an aggressive campaign in which they invested very much money.”
PDSR will benefit, during elections to be held on Sunday, from “the general movement of the electorate,” sociologist Gheorghe Onut states, adding that participation in voting might get to about 50 percent. For Onut, the high percentages expected for the current mayors of important cities such as Iasi, Bacau, Braila, Cluj, Brasov or Timisoara also prove “the incompetence of parties,” who “improvised” candidatures. He expects the collapse of FNI to trigger electoral effects during local elections, cutting down participation in voting and increasing the advantage for the opposition. According to Onut, ApR significantly reduced its electoral chances by promoting some candidates that “pulled the party downwards,” in Bucharest as well.
Political analyst Cristian Parvulescu states that Sunday elections will certify the results the main opposition party registered within polls. PDSR will obtain the highest number of positions within county councils, whose stricture is the one “reflecting the power ratio at a national level”. Parvulescu thinks however that in Bucharest the situation is “uncertain,” since elections in the Capital represent “a very important political test in the perspective of general elections.”
In line with a phone poll conducted by Data Media between May 10-30, at the request of Mediafax news agency, PDSR candidate Sorin Oprescu is preferred by 33.9 percent of Bucharest residents, Calin Catalin Chirita by 25.8 percent, George Padure-15.1 percent, and Traian Basescu by 11.2 percent. According to the poll, the most important issue for Bucharest residents is the filth in the city, which was mentioned by 75 percent of people contacted by phone.
In line with a CURS poll made public yesterday, Sorin Oprescu is credited with 28 percent of vote intentions, being followed by Calin Catalin Chirita-20 percent, George Padure-17 percent, Traian Basescu-15 percent, Varujan Vosganian-6 percent, Viorel Lis-6 percent. PDSR will get 33 percent of votes for councilors, CDR (Romanian Democrat Convention) – 18, PNL 10 percent, PRM (Great Romania Party)-6 percent, ApR 6% and UFD (Democrat Union of Right-wing Forces) 5 percent. The undecided or people that would not vote represent 37 percent of the electorate.