Romania in the last two months of this year is to witness one of the most extensive financial and security operations carried on its territory, that is the arrival of the new euro bills and coins to replace the German marks, the French francs and other ten European currencies as of January 1, 2002.
There is yet no clear estimate about the value of the euro shipments to the commercial banks on the Romanian market. Whereas banks can most accurately estimate their euro cash needs, considering the amount of money with which they operate every day, the biggest mystery is the money (in European currencies) stashed away and the amounts used outside the banking system.
Some bankers say that about one or two billion dollars are currently used outside the banking system, with the German mark accounting for 30% of it, as nearly every business in Transilvania is conducted in German marks.
“It is very hard to estimate the actual foreign currency demand from the population, just because one cannot possibly assess the amount of money stashed away as neither can one evaluate how likely shifting to euro is to attract that money stashed away, turning it into bank deposits,” Eugen Radulescu, chairman of Raiffeisen-Banca Agricola, told Ziarul Financiar.
Some say it is about 200-300 million euros in cash due to arrive in Romania. Other banks say it is actually about a much higher amount, because the European currencies stashed away or used outside the banking system will begin to surface, with the German mark accounting for most of this cash.
On the other hand, there are bankers saying the amounts transported will be much lower, that is less than 100 million euros. The banks are not willing to officially state the size of their “euro order,” for security reasons.
“Our figures are confidential, of course. On the one hand, they are related to banking operations and on the other we may not volunteer such information for security reasons,” said Cornel Cojocaru, spokesman for Banca Comerciala Romana (Romanian Commercial Bank – BCR), the leading bank in Romania, accounting for 30% of the total banking system.
The Romanian banks will have to place orders for euro with the corresponding banks in the Euro zone in due time, in order to get cash. The money will arrive in Romania from the European Union by plane. The transports will be insured both in Romania and abroad and watched over by security guards. The exact hour when the shipments are due to arrive, bringing the money, will be kept secret.