Speculators call the shots on BSE

After an optimistic start of the year, the stock prices are beginning to slide. The Stock Exchange, however, allowed for a 6-7% average gain in January compared with the last trading session of 2002.
Brokers blame the fluctuating trend on the speculators, who are trying to make the most of the reference dates for payment of dividends from last year’s profit. “The market prices show the real value of the companies under the current economic circumstances, but the market is more volatile than the usual,” Grigore Chis, SIVM Broker operating manager says.
Compared with the high in mid last month, the BET index has lost 4.2%, while the financial investment companies (SIF) have gone down 10% in spite of the upcoming dividend payment reference dates. Petrom, the largest company listed shed 8.7%. On the other hand, Banca Romana pentru Dezvoltare (Romanian Development Bank – BRD) returned to its 30,500 ROL/share high.
A revival of the market is expected to occur in about two months, once the companies release first quarter results. “The quotes should maintain at about the same level in the short term, unless macroeconomic changes occur. Still, we might see some negative corrections, as well,” Rares Nilas, Transilvania Capital Invest chairman says. The interest decline is the main factor that will impact on the Stock Exchange quotes. “A one-percent interest cut should theoretically push quotations six percent up,” Chis said. The interest level influence on the capital market could be clearly seen all through last year: once the interest halved, the prices doubled. As for the international conditions, the brokers agree they make too little an impact on the trend of the Romanian capital market to notice. Both the prospects of a war in Iraq and the trend of EUR/USD exchange rate have not impacted on the stock prices, given that more than 70% of the investors are Romanians.