It is already obvious that, after ten years of practising democracy, something is about to change in the electoral campaign this fall.
The signal was given by Emil Constantinescu, when he announced he would not run for President again. The pattern then broke loose: the ubiquitous Iliescu-Constantinescu confrontation, which could not bring anything new, was not to take place.
The technocrats’ week in politics began yesterday: Theodor Stolojan, the Prime Minister who broke the record of resilience in popularity polls, was expected to announce his candidacy for Cotroceni, and Mugur Isarescu, the Prime Minister who sailed against the current of dislike for the government coalition, will give his own answer, today or tomorrow, to the proposal to run for President, and there are indications that he might accept.
Is there anything that Ion Iliescu, the man who still has the lead in people’s preferences, should fear? Will any of the two technocrats be able to defeat the cunning communist politician? Will the November vote reflect the new features in this campaign?
First of all, it must be said that both Isarescu and Stolojan have taken their time to negotiate their candidacies, and the former is probably still doing so. The two were perhaps trying to keep a clear mind amidst the political context, which prompted their choice of another position than that of Prime Minister, which they would have preferred. Stolojan has tried to bring PNL and ApR to a merger, and although he failed, the two parties are still considering the possibility.
Isarescu is obstinately keeping to his independence. His ambition is to enjoy as ample a support as possible in the first round.
As soon as Constantinescu made his withdrawal speech, where he mentioned no one but Isarescu, the latter was perhaps already pondering the idea of running for President. But he needed to set up the logistics both for victory – wide political support – and for a proper exercise of the mandate, should he eventually win the race for Cotroceni. The fact that parties have courted him and promised political support was not enough. Isarescu probably wanted to make certain that, in case of failure, he would have a say before the parties that offered their support. Because his independence could deprive him of an upper hand over parties. Within the Government, he managed to keep a disobedient coalition to order, but that was also because parties needed a little discipline themselves. An example to that effect was when the Peasants told Isarescu he would have a word in nominating the future Prime Minister.
Then, both Isarescu and Stolojan must know who they are up against. In case of a confrontation, the two will probably fall back to a non-aggression pact, which is very important since, as two major specialists, they know each other’s flaws and are able to fight on the same grounds. An accusation one of them may bring up against the other will weigh more in the eyes of the electorate than one issued by a politician. And then, there is the post-electoral collaboration: the country does need a Prime Minister, too.
What happens if they run separately? On one hand, votes in the first round would be split, because both candidates count on a roughly similar electorate. The contest for the second round will thus be stronger. Petre Roman, for instance, comes with an extraordinary capacity to cash in on the electoral period.
On the other hand, there must be some differences between the two men’s voters. Isarescu seems to be preferred by voters with right-wing views, whereas Stolojan will rather attract left-wing partisans, including a share of Ion Iliescu’s circumstantial electorate. How strong will the bond between these candidates and their electorate be? Will they be able to mutually transfer all their votes into round two? In both cases, the one who makes it to round two risks losing the incompatible portion of the electorate. Also, can the undecided lot be encouraged to turn out at the polls?
Therefore, it is hard to say who of the technocrats would enter the final confrontation. Polls following the official announcement of both candidacies will deliver some hints. But the final vote will not depend only on the competence of the two technocrats, but also on a purely political element: the election campaign.