After the placements in USD have been much more profitable than the ones in ROL (leu means Lion in Romanian), due to the continuous increase of the ROL/USD exchange rate for more than a year, the situation has changed now.
The ROL/USD exchange rate is slower and slower to increase, while the interests are quite high. This is why the placements in ROL’s yield has started to be higher than the one of the placements in USD by far, and the dealers say this is the trend to maintain for the entire year.
“Go for deposits in ROL or placements in T-bills in ROL, as their interests will be higher than the increase in the exchange rate,” a dealer says.
On Friday, for the first time after February 8, 2000, the ROL appreciated against the USD, by one unit, though. The exchange rate fell from 27,178 lei/$ on Friday to 27,177 lei/$.
“What happened Friday is a market fact. NBR did not sell currency to maintain the exchange rate. On the contrary, it bought, but less than usual, that is approximately $1,5 million.
NBR did not feel the need to balance the market. Foreign currency was sold and bought throughout the session. When they drew the line, they found one leu less, ” explained Adrian Vasilescu advisor of the NBR governor Mugur Isarescu.
Daniel Marinescu, executive manager of the financial investment company Vanguard Asset Management, which administers monetary funds thinks there will still be fluctuations in the ROL/USD quotations and the exchange rate will not keep on increasing as it has done for one year.
“I’m hoping to see the zigzag on the foreign currency market in 2001, too (that is ups and downs in the exchange rate). This is the stability we like, ” Vasilescu said.
Along with those who placed their money in USD, the investors and speculators on the futures exchange in Sibiu played the American currency card and lost last week, too. Seemingly they have been losing since early this year.
Whereas on Monday, March 5, the USD contract due at the end of the month and traded in Sibiu was quoted to 27,733 lei, Wednesday witnessed the sharpest decline in price, that is 180 units. The price set on the last day of last week was 27,451 lei.
Adrian Batagui, director of the Piraeus Bank Romania treasury says that the effects of the measures taken by the new Government have started to show, which effects are deemed as satisfactory even by international institutions.
“I think the monetary-foreign currency policy applied by NBR and the new Government for this year will focus on two scenarios: the depreciation of the ROL against the USD must keep below the inflation rate and the annual interest rate must be a little above the inflation rate.
The first signal in this regard was sent out on Friday, and this trend of the ROL/USD exchange rate will maintain throughout the summer, too,” Batagui says.