President Constantinescu’s withdrawal from the race for a new mandate will not unleash any anti-corruption campaign, but might have a favourable effect as regards acceleration of economic reform, most political analysts think.
On the other hand, commentators of the Romanian political stage consider that, in his speech, the head of state pointed to the current Premier Mugur Isarescu as the main beneficiary of his political capital. Political analyst Dan Pavel does not rule out, thus, the possibility that the chief of state might get involved in designating a new presidential candidate of a centre-right-wing alliance and maintains that the president “has already opened a door for Mugur Isarescu.” “He explicitly indicated to whom his option is directed, so as to open a door to the current Premier,” says Pavel. In the opinion of Cristian Parvulescu, the chief of state showed in his very speech that Isarescu might replace him in the race for Cotroceni, and he was the only name mentioned during the respective discourse.
The president’s decision will not have a major impact over the fight against corruption, political analyst Dorel aandor considers. He believes that concrete results will not be much more spectacular in four months, as “we can rather speak of preliminary results” after four years.
aandor says that the president’s involvement in the fight against corruption is real and that “his statements are covered by facts and substance,” but maintains that the authority of the chief of state in front of institutions holding responsibilities in the fight against corruption will decrease following his decision of leaving the race, even though his prestige gained weight. In aandor’s opinion, another obstacle consists in the “controversial” relationships the president has with Justice minister Valeriu Stoica.
Dorel aandor believes however that the president would play an important role during the last four months of his mandate in speeding up economic reform. He states that Emil Constantinescu can assume other initiatives beside raising pensions, namely acceleration of privatisation and support of foreign investors, and that he might preside several Government meetings that will debate these issues.
“A campaign against corruption has no chance to begin until autumn elections,” political analyst Stelian Tanase maintains. He is certain that we can witness at least an “image campaign” of President Constantinescu on the issue of corruption, which in no case will trigger concrete results.
“The anti-corruption campaign is blocked until elections. No police general and no magistrate will put their career at stake by investigating certain files,” Tanase states. The analyst added that Police and Justice would not take action until the election result was made public and that Constantinescu’s statement was one more argument in this direction.
“Everybody is aware now that the president will change, perhaps the government as well, so nobody will get seriously involved in such campaigns,” Stelian Tanase states. On the other hand, Tanase also believes that the decision of the acting president will not influence the Constitutional Court’s verdict concerning the acceptance or rejection of a new candidacy of Ion Iliescu. He states that an eventual rejection would only “foster nostalgia” and may be deemed by PDSR leader’s supporters as an attempt to obstruct Ion Iliescu’s victory by unfair means. In exchange, political analyst Dan Pavel claims that President Constantinescu “will get more involved” in the fight against corruption in the last four months of his mandate.